AI and predictive analytics in workforce development (WD) are trends in the future

Vlad Pavlov in his article “Worried About AI Killing Jobs? Tell Tech Companies to Invest More Into AI” [1] writes: “It appears the two surges of AI products are coming. The first will be replacing humans in the existing workflows; it will kill jobs. Then the second surge will create radically new use-cases and bring jobs.”
What does it mean? People will compete with AI rather than with each other. To be successful first, people have to find and obtain skills which will be unreachable for AI. Secondly, they will develop these skills to compete with other people. It easily can be proven by following: Imagine that AI has passed the Turing test [2]. This means that individuals don’t know who their competitor is — AI or another person? As a result people have to be more cost effective than AI or to have skills that are unreachable for AI. Otherwise, people will be replaced by AI.
Does it mean that AI will kill rivalry? No, it means that an employee on the labor market has to yield more value than AI with same cost. AI is a product and can be serial, people are always unique. This only means that human capital will define competition in the future. It was true in the past and is true today as well. It is an invariant of the economic theory.
The point above defines the requirement to have precise information about value of each skill on the tuple (data structure) of “industry — location — skill — proficiency level — time” (onward — the Market tuple).
This information will be a market indicator for people to understand what skills need to be developed and which do not. The prediction of demand for a specific skill will be of enormous importance for enhancing personal development. In order to be competitive, it’s time to improve actual needed skills in accordance to market demand.
I can assume people will want to know:
  1. what is the demand price and supply price for each skill based on the Market tuple?
  2. What is the average cost of living by location based on the Market tuple?
  3. What is the average time to acquire a certain skill depending on their skill set?
  4. What are the costs to acquire a certain skill depending on their skill set?
  5. What is the trend for each skill on the Market tuple?
  6. What is the aggregate value of a person at a specific location?
We have to remember that not all our skills are required for a job. So, it means that salary defines the sum of value of skills needed for a specific job only. I can therefore, make a conclusion that a person’s value is not equal to his/her salary.
A new human capital law can be defined as “human capital value is greater or equal to current salary. Human capital shows a potential”. Therefore, I can assume that the real value of a person on the labor market will be very useful for credit scoring and risk assessment. If price of a person rises on the market the risk of assessing the loan as problematic is decreasing.
Why people have to be skills oriented? Let’s assume that Moore’s law [3] is correct. For our case, it means that the power of AI will increase every 18 months, which is very fast!
Alison Doyle in her article “How Long Should An Employee Stay at a Job?” [4] writes: “The median number of years that wage and salary workers had been with their current employer is currently 4.6 years, according to an Economic News Release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, that varies by age and occupation:
  • The median tenure for workers age 25 to 34 is 3.2 years
  • The median tenure for employees age 65 and over is 10.3 years
  • Workers in management, professional, and related occupations had the highest median tenure (5.5 years)
  • Workers in service occupations had the lowest median tenure (3.2 years).”
Indicated statistic tells that while a person (age 25 to 34) fits one job position AI on the other hand, increases its power twice. Or in other words, the advantage of a person over AI will decrease very fast and a person has to improve his/her skills in accordance to following rule: develop skills that are unreachable for AI OR develop skills more quickly than it’s pre-defined by Moore’s law. The best strategy is to replace “OR” for “AND”. Nevertheless, there are some problems — AI creators will propagate information about skills capacity. It means that any skill from your skill set can be covered by AI and your company will know about it. As a result, people have the one real strategy only — to develop the needed skill for the market as fast as possible.
People need to know the labor market dynamics for each of the Market tuple otherwise AI will replace workforce where hard skills are leading. It means that AI and predictive analytics in talent development is like a bullet and armor. The victory of AI will mean that many people will lose their jobs and qualifications. Most of them will not have a possibility and time for re-qualification. As result the level of unemployment will virally grow, the professional level stagnate and ultimately, quality of people’s life will decrease!
I want to leave the question about market capacity for AI and predictive analytics in WD as an open question. Can only assume that each person will be a customer of predictive analytics. Maybe each person will be a customer of AI but it has to be proven!
References:
  1. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/worried-ai-killing-jobs-tell-tech-companies-invest-more-vlad-pavlov
  2. http://www.psych.utoronto.ca/users/reingold/courses/ai/turing.htm
  3. http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html
  4. https://www.thebalance.com/how-long-should-an-employee-stay-at-a-job-2059796